
Merlintrader Trading Pub
Biotech catalyst, news and analysis PDUFA tracker

Merlintrader Trading Pub
Biotech catalyst, news and analysis PDUFA tracker
AI transparency: articles and reports are produced with the help of artificial intelligence and checked through a process that does not constitute specialist validation. They may contain errors: verify relevant information with independent sources. Read the full disclaimer.
Week: October 26-30, 2026 | Updated October 31, 2026
Weekly Market Pulse
Megacap results and a Fed hold weigh on technology. SPY -0.56%, QQQ -1.97% and DIA -0.81%, while IWM gained 1.30%. Software (IGV -5.70%) and communication services (XLC -5.32%) fell most, while biotech (XBI +4.31%) and health care (XLV +3.12%) advanced; nine of eleven sector ETFs finished higher. Price changes compare October 30 with October 23 in the same daily data series.
SPY -0.56%QQQ -1.97%IWM +1.30%SMH -0.89%XBI +4.31%
Most sectors rise as software and communication services slide
Nine positive sector ETFs out of eleven, led by health care (XLV +3.12%), materials (XLB +2.79%) and utilities (XLU +2.04%); communication services (XLC -5.32%) and technology (XLK -2.03%) were the only sectors lower. This is sector participation, not an advance/decline count across individual stocks.
Our interpretation: the large-cap indexes slipped while most sectors rose, so the weakness was concentrated in a few heavily weighted technology and communication names. Alphabet fell sharply the day after its report despite revenue growth, Amazon also ended the week lower, and semiconductors dropped on Friday. The Fed held rates with two votes for an increase; the October jobs report on November 6 is the next test.
Megacap reports, mixed reactions
GOOGL -12.61%, AMZN -3.08% and MSFT -0.50% over the week, with SMH -6.98% on Friday alone. These are price changes, not forecasts.
Fed holds, two votes for a hike
The FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 by a 10-2 vote; the two dissenters preferred a 0.25-point increase.
FDA approves Inovio’s Voceryq
XBI +4.31% and IBB +4.75%. On October 30 the FDA granted accelerated approval to Voceryq, the first plasmid DNA-based immunotherapy approved in the U.S., for adults with recurrent respiratory papillomatosis.
Constructive confirmation to watch
Watch whether the broad sector gains (nine of eleven ETFs higher, IWM +1.30%) hold while large technology names are under pressure. Q3 GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the advance estimate.
Risks to watch
September PCE prices rose 3.6% from a year earlier while employment costs rose 3.4%, and two FOMC members voted for a rate increase. Alphabet’s capital expenditures more than doubled to $51.36 billion in the quarter. No policy outcome is assumed.
Key macro release this week
October jobs report
November 6, 8:30 a.m. ET / 14:30 Europe/Rome (US clocks change November 1). BLS release calendar. The data is not yet known.
NOV 608:30 ET
14:30 Roma
14:30 Roma
Market map: nine of eleven sector ETFs advance
SPY-0.56%Oct 30 close: $755.72
QQQ-1.97%Oct 30 close: $690.49
DIA-0.81%Oct 30 close: $517.13
IWM+1.30%Oct 30 close: $279.33
XLK -2.03%XLE +1.00%XLU +2.04%XLF +1.09%XLV +3.12%XLC -5.32%XLRE +1.41%XLB +2.79%
SPY daily chartOpen live chart
Daily bars in USD, October 30 versus October 23; Friday versus October 29. Price changes exclude distributions. The live chart may show later data.
| Ticker | Instrument / sector | Week | Oct 30 close | Friday |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SMH | Semiconductors | -0.89% | $522.49 | -6.98% |
| $IGV | Software | -5.70% | $104.29 | -3.41% |
| $XLK | Technology | -2.03% | $179.51 | -4.89% |
| $XLE | Energy | +1.00% | $70.02 | +1.91% |
| $XLU | Utilities | +2.04% | $43.43 | +0.67% |
| $QQQ | Nasdaq-100 ETF | -1.97% | $690.49 | -3.47% |
| $IWM | Russell 2000 ETF | +1.30% | $279.33 | -1.65% |
| $SPY | S&P 500 ETF | -0.56% | $755.72 | -1.77% |
| $XLI | Industrials | +1.69% | $167.40 | -1.60% |
| $XBI | Biotech equal-weight | +4.31% | $155.98 | -1.15% |
| $XLY | Consumer discretionary | +2.02% | $115.38 | -0.71% |
| $DIA | Dow ETF | -0.81% | $517.13 | -1.07% |
| $XLRE | Real estate | +1.41% | $43.17 | +0.26% |
| $XLP | Consumer staples | +1.31% | $89.42 | +1.41% |
| $XLB | Materials | +2.79% | $52.74 | +0.40% |
| $IBB | Biotech ETF | +4.75% | $217.61 | -0.11% |
| $XLC | Communication services | -5.32% | $99.90 | -1.29% |
| $XLF | Financials | +1.09% | $56.51 | -0.76% |
| $XLV | Health care | +3.12% | $184.87 | +0.45% |
Cross-asset map: silver and gold funds fall, Treasury funds edge up
SLV -8.46%, GLD -2.95%, USO -0.41%, TLT +0.61% and UUP +0.14%. ETF exposure, fees and futures roll effects can differ from spot returns. Treasury-fund gains do not imply a measured yield change.
| Ticker | Instrument / sector | Week | Oct 30 close | Friday |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $XOP | Oil & gas exploration ETF | +1.03% | $203.76 | +2.13% |
| $UUP | US dollar fund | +0.14% | $29.00 | -0.14% |
| $EEM | Emerging-market equities | -1.56% | $61.04 | -2.68% |
| $USO | Oil fund | -0.41% | $168.83 | +0.38% |
| $IEF | 7–10 year Treasury ETF | +0.78% | $91.76 | +0.56% |
| $HYG | High-yield corporate ETF | +0.49% | $77.43 | -0.19% |
| $LQD | Investment-grade corporate ETF | +0.40% | $104.27 | +0.05% |
| $EFA | Developed ex-US equities | +0.72% | $103.37 | -0.94% |
| $FXI | China large-cap ETF | +2.38% | $33.08 | +1.19% |
| $TLT | 20+ year Treasury ETF | +0.61% | $81.84 | +0.43% |
| $GLD | Gold ETF | -2.95% | $355.78 | -3.47% |
| $SLV | Silver ETF | -8.46% | $44.60 | -5.67% |
| $UNG | Natural gas fund | -5.22% | $9.08 | -1.09% |
Sessions in review: October 26-30
Each daily return uses the preceding session in the same price series. Daily changes compound to the weekly change; adding rounded percentages will not reproduce it exactly.
| Session | SPY | QQQ | IWM | SMH | IGV | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | +0.71% | +1.11% | +0.45% | +2.74% | +0.72% | Regular-session close comparison |
| 2026-10-27 | +0.56% | +1.27% | +1.15% | +3.02% | +0.35% | Regular-session close comparison |
| 2026-10-28 | +0.34% | +0.60% | +0.40% | +1.74% | +0.12% | Regular-session close comparison |
| 2026-10-29 | -0.38% | -1.42% | +0.97% | -1.06% | -3.52% | Regular-session close comparison |
| 2026-10-30 | -1.77% | -3.47% | -1.65% | -6.98% | -3.41% | Regular-session close comparison |
Macro: Fed holds, growth strong, inflation firm
Initial claims194,000Week to Oct 24 · DOL
4-week average196,750Claims · DOL
Q3 real GDP+3.4%Annual rate, advance · BEA
Next FOMCDec 9Meeting Dec 8-9
Jobless claims stay low
Seasonally adjusted initial claims were 194,000 in the week ending October 24, down 1,000 from the previous week’s revised 195,000; the four-week average was 196,750. Insured unemployment was 1,701,000 in the week ending October 17, a rate of 1.1%. Department of Labor
Growth strong, inflation firm
Real GDP rose at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter in the advance estimate, after 2.2% in the second. In September the PCE price index rose 0.5% on the month and 3.6% on the year; excluding food and energy it rose 0.3% and 3.1%. Real spending was nearly flat and the saving rate was 3.8%. BEA GDP · BEA personal income
Rates: Fed holds at 3.75-4.00%
On October 28 the FOMC kept the target range at 3.75-4.00% by a 10-2 vote; Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred a 0.25-point increase. The statement says inflation remains elevated. The next meeting is December 8-9. Federal Reserve statement
Interpretation: pay trails prices
Employment costs rose 0.8% in the third quarter and 3.4% over twelve months, with wages and salaries up 3.1%, below the 3.6% annual PCE inflation rate. Two votes for a hike show that part of the Committee sees more risk on inflation; neither release determines the December decision. BLS
Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report
Microsoft reported October 28 for its fiscal first quarter: revenue $92.3 billion, up 19%; operating income $45.9 billion, up 21%; diluted EPS $4.92 on a GAAP basis and $4.89 excluding the impact of its OpenAI investment. Microsoft Cloud revenue was $63.9 billion, up 30%, and Azure revenue grew 48%. SEC exhibit 99.1
Alphabet reported October 28: third-quarter revenue $127.6 billion, up 25%; Google Cloud revenue $30.7 billion, up 103%; operating margin 31.8% and diluted EPS $2.12, compared with $2.87 a year earlier, after other expense of $8.2 billion. Purchases of property and equipment were $51.36 billion, compared with $23.95 billion a year earlier. SEC exhibit 99.1
Amazon reported October 29: net sales $201.9 billion, up 12%; AWS sales $46.0 billion, up 39%; operating income $28.1 billion and diluted EPS $1.89. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow was an outflow of $42.4 billion, driven by higher spending on property and equipment. Weekly price changes: GOOGL -12.61%, AMZN -3.08%, MSFT -0.50%. Single reports are not a proxy for the whole market. SEC exhibit 99.1
Biotech: FDA approves Voceryq as XBI rises
XBI +4.31%, IBB +4.75%. Different portfolio weights explain why the funds are not interchangeable sector measures.
October 30 approval
The FDA granted accelerated approval to Inovio’s Voceryq (doruxapapogene ralaplasmid and lalikinogene sifuplasmid-gxfd) for adults with recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, the first plasmid DNA-based immunotherapy approved in the U.S. In an open-label trial in 32 adults, 7 of 26 patients (27%) with at least three baseline surgeries needed no surgery in the first year after treatment. Continued approval depends on confirmatory trials. FDA release
October 29 results
Eli Lilly reported third-quarter revenue of $24.4 billion, up 39%, driven mainly by Mounjaro and Zepbound; reported EPS was $7.22, including $4.57 of acquired IPR&D charges. Lilly raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $91.0-92.0 billion and set non-GAAP EPS guidance at $35.00-36.00. SEC exhibit 99.1
Forward calendar as of October 31
The next week is November 2-6. Times follow agency schedules. US clocks change on November 1, so Rome is again six hours ahead of ET. Dates can be revised.
| Date | Time | Release | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 10:00 ET / 16:00 Roma | Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, September | BLS |
| 2026-11-05 | 08:30 ET / 14:30 Roma | Productivity and Costs, Q3 (preliminary) | BLS |
| 2026-11-06 | 08:30 ET / 14:30 Roma | Employment Situation, October | BLS |
| 2026-11-10 | 08:30 ET / 14:30 Roma | Consumer Price Index, October | BLS |
Sources and methodology
Official daily closing prices for 32 ETFs, six sessions from October 23 through October 30, 192 observations. All comparisons use the same daily-series basis; price changes exclude distributions and are not total returns or live prices.
Primary economic and company releases are linked in each section. Sector breadth is the count of positive returns among eleven sector ETFs, not stock-level breadth. Interpretations are editorial and do not attribute moves to a single cause or to an unconfirmed consensus surprise.
Disclaimer. This report is published for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Merlintrader is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer. Market data, economic releases and regulatory dates can be revised by the issuing agency or company. Past performance does not signal future performance. The instruments mentioned may be volatile and involve substantial risk, including loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Full disclaimer: merlintrader.com/disclaimer.
Get the next Weekly Pulse in real time
Join the Merlintrader Telegram channel for market recaps, biotech catalyst updates and Stock Hub refreshes as they go live.
Join @merlintraderpub_com on TelegramFree Biotech Catalyst Calendar
Track upcoming PDUFA dates, FDA advisory committees, clinical readouts and regulatory decisions in one place.
Open the Biotech Catalyst Calendar


