1. When ONDS first entered our radar

If you only look at the chart today, it’s easy to think Ondas is just another defence/robotics name that woke up at the start of 2026 and suddenly “everyone” wants to talk about it. The way we’ve treated it on Merlintrader is a bit different: we did not jump in only after the breakout.

The first serious appearance of ONDS on the site dates back to 12 November 2025, with the article focused on earnings. At that time ONDS was not yet “the story of the moment”, but a small cap sitting in an unusual spot:

• part of the business in private wireless infrastructure (Ondas Networks), and
• another part in autonomous drones and ground robots through Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS).

Even in that first piece, the tone was not “casino on one quarter”, but more: this mix of defence, autonomy and critical networks might deserve a deeper look than what the market is giving it right now.

2. From November to early January – what actually happened

After that first contact, we didn’t drop the name. We built a continuous thread of coverage – and the stock moved on its own fundamentals and momentum. It’s useful to see the sequence clearly.

• 12 November 2025 – First article on $ONDS
  Earnings recap and first comments on OAS. The stock is trading in the high single digits, with a strong 2025 behind it but still largely ignored outside a small group of sector-focused investors.
• 4 December 2025 – Deep Research 2025 on Ondas
  A full report on the business (Networks + OAS), backlog and, crucially, the company’s own guide: roughly 36 M USD revenue for 2025 and 110 M USD for 2026. In that piece we note a share price around 8.9 USD. The stock had already moved, but ONDS was far from a mainstream story.
• 3 January 2026 – “Small Caps of the Moment” sheet
  ONDS enters the small-cap watchlist as an interesting case, not as a “must buy now”. The sheet highlights the sector, the ambitious revenue guide and the fact that valuation has already shifted higher after the 2025 run.
• 6 January 2026 – Extended update before the OAS Investor Day
  By then ONDS is already trading in the low-teens with much higher volumes. The update explicitly states that the OAS Investor Day on 16 January will be the real test: up to that point the market has worked mostly on expectations, now it’s time to see how detailed and realistic the 2026 plan really is.

In parallel, the price has done what it has done: from roughly 8–9 USD in early December into the 12–13 USD range in early January, a move in the ballpark of +30–40% in a few weeks. That doesn’t guarantee anything going forward, but it shows that we were looking at ONDS during the “discovery” phase, not just once the daily chart looked pretty.

3. A more visible story, and a less “cheap” price

Today ONDS is clearly on more radar screens: it appears in growth conferences, in small-cap screens and in more detailed fund notes. The underlying story, however, is the same:

• OAS as a platform for autonomous drones and ground robots in defence and critical infrastructure,
• Ondas Networks as the wireless backbone for these systems and other mission-critical applications.

What has changed is how the market is pricing it:

• after the recent run, the easy multiple expansion from “neglected” to “noticed” is already behind us;
• more people are now aware of the 110 M USD 2026 revenue target, so expectations are higher;
• each new event (conference, Investor Day) has more to lose if the message is weak, and less to gain just from surprise alone.

That doesn’t make Ondas automatically overvalued, but it does mean that from here the key question becomes: can the company execute against its own roadmap? The stock doesn’t need more fireworks right away – it needs solid follow-through on contracts, margins and guidance.

4. The Needham press release – content and significance

On 7 January 2026 Ondas issued a press release announcing its participation in the 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference. The key points are:

• fireside chat on 14 January 2026 at 8:45 AM ET with CEO Eric Brock and Needham’s Defense Tech analyst, Austin Bohlig;
• a full day of one-on-one meetings with institutional investors organised by Needham;
• a positioning that emphasizes OAS as a “leading provider of autonomous aerial and ground robot intelligence” and Ondas Networks as the private wireless arm;
• webcast and materials accessible via the Investor Relations section of the Ondas website.

On its own, this event does not create revenue or contracts. It does:

• put the story in front of the right small/mid-cap growth audience;
• come at a very deliberate time, just days before the OAS Investor Day where more details on 2026 are expected;
• signal that ONDS is now being treated as a proper defence/robotics growth name by a recognised broker.

In a balanced reading, the Needham slot is a visibility and credibility checkpoint. A solid, concrete presentation can help the current price range consolidate; a weak or overly promotional one can just as easily trigger a pause or a partial retrace while investors wait for harder data.

5. What we actually want to highlight

The point of this editorial is not to claim a perfect call or imply that ONDS must keep going up. The point is to show that:

• we started covering ONDS when it was still a relatively quiet name, and we tried to do it seriously;
• we followed up with a full Deep Research report, then a “Small Caps of the Moment” sheet, then an extended update ahead of the Investor Day;
• now that the stock has already moved, we are more interested in listening carefully to what will actually be said at Needham and at the Investor Day than in guessing the next short-term price spike.

In other words: we’ve tried to be coherent over time in how we look at ONDS. That doesn’t mean the stock is destined to success, and it certainly doesn’t mean the current price implies only one direction.